Does Martingale work better in baccarat?
No. Baccarat’s lower house edge makes every system lose less per chip than on roulette, but Martingale still goes bust in the same way, and the 5% commission means a banker win doesn’t quite recover a doubled loss.
With the same inputs, Martingale went bust 33.9% of the time on baccarat’s banker bet and 38.5% on red at a single-zero wheel. It lost 0.61% and 2.71% of every chip bet.
Run these sessions in the simulatorRoulette odds for every bet
Martingale on each game, same inputs
| Game | Reached the target | Went bust | Average result | Lost per chip bet | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baccarat (banker) | 63.4% | 33.9% | −23.65 | 0.61% | 1.06% |
| Baccarat (player) | 62.7% | 35.4% | −43.19 | 1.24% | 1.24% |
| European roulette (red) | 59.7% | 38.5% | −88.35 | 2.71% | 2.70% |
| American roulette (red) | 54.3% | 44.5% | −174.03 | 5.22% | 5.26% |
10,000 sessions of up to 250 bets each, with a 1,000-chip bankroll, a 10-chip base bet and a table maximum of 1,000, stopping once 500 chips ahead. Seed “cgs”: the link above replays exactly these sessions.
Why
Banker and player bets cost less than red at roulette, so any system loses a bit less per chip bet. The losing streaks that break Martingale are just as possible: the system doesn’t care which game produces them. On banker there is an extra wrinkle: a win pays 0.95 to 1, so the double that was meant to recover the losses plus one unit falls slightly short, and ties pause the progression without paying anything.