Should you bet on banker or player in baccarat?
Banker. Even after the 5% commission, it costs less than player in every game below.
On an 8-deck shoe the house edge is 1.06% on banker and 1.24% on player. Banker wins 45.86% of hands, player 44.62%, and 9.52% are ties, which push both bets.
Every bet on an 8-deck shoe
| Bet | Wins | Pays | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.86% | 0.95 to 1 | 1.06% |
| Player | 44.62% | 1 to 1 | 1.24% |
| Tie | 9.52% | 8 to 1 | 14.36% |
Why
The drawing rules favor the banker hand: it acts last and draws knowing the player’s third card, so it wins slightly more often than the player. The casino charges a commission on banker wins to take that edge back, but not all of it. Betting player to avoid the commission means choosing the more expensive bet to dodge a fee that was never the problem. The number of decks barely matters.
Do the decks or the commission change it?
| Game | Banker | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 8 decks, 5% commission | 1.058% | 1.235% |
| 6 decks, 5% commission | 1.056% | 1.237% |
| 4 decks, 5% commission | 1.052% | 1.242% |
| 2 decks, 5% commission | 1.039% | 1.256% |
| 1 deck, 5% commission | 1.012% | 1.286% |
| 8 decks, 4% commission | 0.599% | 1.235% |
| 8 decks, no commission | 1.018% | 1.235% |
House edge per hand bet, ties counted as pushes. No commission: banker wins pay 1 to 1, except a win with three cards totaling 7, which pushes.