Does following the streak work in baccarat?
No. After any run of banker or player wins, the next hand comes out banker just as often as after any other hand. The scoreboard records the past; it doesn’t predict anything.
In 2,000,000 hands dealt from real 8-deck shoes, banker won 50.72% of the hands that weren’t ties. After five bankers in a row, the next one was banker 50.54% of the time; after five players in a row, 51.13%.
What came after each run
| After this run | Hands | Next is banker | Next is player |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 banker | 452,344 | 50.77% | 49.23% |
| 2 banker | 226,486 | 50.64% | 49.36% |
| 3 banker | 113,150 | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| 4 banker | 56,770 | 50.92% | 49.08% |
| 5 banker | 28,491 | 50.54% | 49.46% |
| 6 or more banker | 28,277 | 50.52% | 49.48% |
| 1 player | 451,961 | 50.65% | 49.35% |
| 2 player | 219,993 | 50.79% | 49.21% |
| 3 player | 106,764 | 50.67% | 49.33% |
| 4 player | 51,993 | 50.51% | 49.49% |
| 5 player | 25,381 | 51.13% | 48.87% |
| 6 or more player | 23,679 | 50.86% | 49.14% |
| Any hand | 1,809,675 | 50.72% | 49.28% |
| Exact, any hand | 50.68% | 49.32% |
24,386 shoes of 8 decks dealt by the game’s engine from a fixed seed, cut card 14 cards from the end. Ties are left out and don’t break a run, as on a casino scoreboard; runs start over with each shoe. The exact chance that banker wins a hand that isn’t a tie, off the top of a shoe, is shown in the last row.
Why
Each hand is dealt from what is left in the shoe, and the cards that came out barely change the odds of the next one: nowhere near enough to make a run continue or break. Long runs and choppy stretches are simply what random results look like, and the roads printed on the scoreboard make them easy to spot. Following a streak, betting against it or waiting for a pattern all pay the same house edge.