Can you count cards in baccarat?
Not profitably. Each card that comes out moves the banker and player edges by tiny amounts, far too little to turn either bet in your favor except in rare spots near the end of a shoe.
Taking one card out of an 8-deck shoe changes the house edge by at most 0.0116 pp on banker, 0.0120 pp on player and 0.1160 pp on the tie.
What one card out of an 8-deck shoe does
| Card removed | Banker edge | Player edge | Tie edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ace | −0.0044 | +0.0045 | −0.0129 |
| 2 | −0.0052 | +0.0054 | +0.0239 |
| 3 | −0.0065 | +0.0067 | +0.0214 |
| 4 | −0.0116 | +0.0120 | +0.0292 |
| 5 | +0.0083 | −0.0084 | +0.0264 |
| 6 | +0.0113 | −0.0113 | +0.1160 |
| 7 | +0.0083 | −0.0082 | +0.1091 |
| 8 | +0.0050 | −0.0053 | −0.0654 |
| 9 | +0.0023 | −0.0025 | −0.0426 |
| 10, J, Q, K | −0.0019 | +0.0018 | −0.0513 |
Change in each bet’s house edge, in percentage points, after one card of that value leaves a full 8-deck shoe. Negative numbers are good for that bet. Exact counts over every coup the shoe can deal.
Why
In blackjack you make decisions that use what the remaining cards favor; in baccarat both hands play by fixed rules, so the cards only shift the odds of bets you can’t steer. Removing a single card from an 8-deck shoe changes the banker edge by a few thousandths of a percentage point. Even with a perfect count, a bet turns in the player’s favor only rarely, late in a shoe, and by too little to pay for the hands bet in between. The tie bet reacts most to the cards, which isn’t enough either.