Does the Paroli (reverse Martingale) system work?
No, but it is the gentler mirror image of Martingale: it only presses its winnings, so a losing streak never costs more than one base bet at a time. It still loses the house edge on every chip.
Over the same simulated sessions, Paroli finished ahead 34.9% of the time and went bust 0.2%; Martingale finished ahead 40.6% of the time and went bust 57.0%. Paroli’s average session lost 111.99 chips, 2.65% of every chip bet.
Run these sessions in the simulatorRoulette odds for every bet
Paroli, Martingale and flat betting on the same sessions
| System | Finished ahead | Went bust | Average result | Best session | Lost per chip bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paroli (reverse Martingale) | 34.9% | 0.2% | −111.99 | +1,260 | 2.65% |
| Martingale | 40.6% | 57.0% | −159.57 | +1,520 | 2.63% |
| Flat betting | 31.6% | 0.0% | −64.56 | +540 | 2.58% |
10,000 sessions of up to 250 bets each, with a 1,000-chip bankroll, a 10-chip base bet and a table maximum of 1,000. Seed “cgs”: the link above replays exactly these sessions.
Why
Paroli doubles after a win and goes back to the base bet after a loss or after three wins in a row. Losses stay small and steady, and the occasional run of three wins pays seven times the base bet. That is the opposite shape of Martingale’s results: many small losses and a few nice wins instead of many small wins and a few disasters. The money you bet is still bet at the house edge, so over many sessions it comes out behind just the same.