Pass or don’t pass: which is the better bet?
Don’t pass, by a hair. The difference is so small that betting with the shooter is just as reasonable; both are among the cheapest bets in the casino.
House edge: pass line 1.41%, don’t pass 1.36% (1.40% counting only bets that win or lose). With 3-4-5x odds: 0.37% and 0.27%.
The two line bets
| Bet | Wins | Pushes | Flat bet | Bets decided | With 3-4-5x odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass line | 49.29% | 0.00% | 1.41% | 1.41% | 0.37% |
| Don’t pass | 47.93% | 2.78% | 1.36% | 1.40% | 0.27% |
Why
The pass line wins on a 7 or 11 on the come-out and loses on 2, 3 or 12; after that it needs the point before a 7. Don’t pass is the mirror image, except that a 12 on the come-out pushes instead of winning, which is what gives the house its edge. The don’t side wins slightly more of the bets that are decided. Laying odds on don’t pass lowers its edge a bit more than taking odds on the pass line does.