What win rate do you need to break even at −110?
About 52.4%. At −110 you risk 110 to win 100, so you have to win 11 bets for every 10 you lose just to get your money back.
At −110 the break-even win rate is 52.38%. Win half your bets and you lose 4.55% of everything you stake; win 55% and you make 5.00%.
Simulate a bettor exactly at break-evenThe house edge of every sports bet
Break-even win rate by price
| American | Decimal | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|
| −200 | 1.50 | 66.67% |
| −150 | 1.67 | 60.00% |
| −120 | 1.83 | 54.55% |
| −115 | 1.87 | 53.49% |
| −110 | 1.91 | 52.38% |
| −105 | 1.95 | 51.22% |
| +100 | 2.00 | 50.00% |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.00% |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.33% |
The second price in each row is rounded the way sportsbooks quote it.
Why
A winning bet at −110 returns 210 for every 110 risked, which is the fair payout for something that happens 110 times in 210. Win more often than that and the difference is profit; win less often and you pay the bookmaker’s margin. The break-even rate is always 1 divided by the decimal odds, so it moves with the price: a −120 favorite has to win 54.5% of the time, an underdog at +150 only 40%.
What each win rate is worth at −110
| Win rate | Per 100 staked | 500 bets of 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 48.00% | −8.36 | −418 |
| 50.00% | −4.55 | −227 |
| 52.00% | −0.73 | −36 |
| 52.38% | 0.00 | 0 |
| 54.00% | +3.09 | +155 |
| 55.00% | +5.00 | +250 |
| 57.00% | +8.82 | +441 |