Does the Martingale work in sports betting?
No. Raising the stake after every loss wins a little most of the time and now and then loses the whole bankroll. It cannot change the price of the bets, so on average you still lose the bookmaker’s margin on everything you stake, and a bettor with a real edge is safer without it.
In 10,000 simulations of 500 bets at −110, a bettor who wins half the time went broke in 79.2% of them with the Martingale and in 0.0% with flat stakes. A bettor who wins 55% still went broke in 49.7% with the Martingale. Seven losses in a row turn a first stake of 10 into 1,801.
Run these bets in the simulatorThe house edge of every sports bet
Flat stakes against the Martingale, on the same bets
| Bettor and plan | Finished ahead | Went broke | Average result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins 50%, flat 10 | 15.2% | 0.0% | −229 |
| Wins 50%, Martingale from 10 | 20.2% | 79.2% | −431 |
| Wins 55%, flat 10 | 88.6% | 0.0% | +249 |
| Wins 55%, Martingale from 10 | 49.5% | 49.7% | +570 |
Each row is 10,000 simulations of 500 bets at −110, starting with 1,000, seed “cgs”. The link above replays the highlighted row.
Why
After a loss at −110 you have to stake 2.1 times as much to win the streak back, so the stakes grow even faster than at a roulette table, where doubling is enough. A losing streak long enough to reach your whole bankroll comes sooner or later, and one such streak takes back all the small wins before it. Each bet still loses the same share of what is staked on it, so the system only rearranges the results; it cannot improve them.
How fast the stakes grow after losses
| Losses in a row | Next stake | Lost so far |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 10 |
| 2 | 44 | 31 |
| 3 | 93 | 75 |
| 4 | 194 | 168 |
| 5 | 408 | 362 |
| 6 | 858 | 771 |
| 7 | 1,801 | 1,628 |
| 8 | 3,782 | 3,429 |