Hit or stand on soft 18 against a dealer 9?
Hit. Soft 18 is an underdog against a 9, and one card can’t bust it.
Expected result per unit bet on a 6-deck table where the dealer hits soft 17, with surrender (the common Las Vegas Strip game): Hit −0.0985 · Stand −0.1826 · Double −0.2848.
Practice on this table in the trainerBasic strategy chart for this table
The hand
You
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Dealer
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| Play | Expected result |
|---|---|
| HitBest | −0.0985 |
| Stand | −0.1826 |
| Double | −0.2848 |
| Surrender | −0.5000 |
Average win or loss per unit of the original bet (−0.5000 loses half the bet on average), computed exactly from the cards left in the shoe, with perfect play afterwards. In US games the numbers are after the dealer has checked for blackjack.
Why
Against a 9 the dealer often ends on 19, so 18 loses more than it wins. A soft hand can take a card with no risk of busting, and drawing to it improves you more often than it hurts. Against weaker up cards the play changes to standing or doubling; the table by up card shows where.
Do the table rules change the answer?
The answer is the same on all 7 tables below.
| Table | Hit | Stand | Double |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 decks · H17 · DAS · surrender | −0.0985 | −0.1826 | −0.2848 |
| 6 decks · S17 · DAS · surrender | −0.0985 | −0.1826 | −0.2848 |
| 8 decks · H17 · DAS · surrender | −0.0990 | −0.1828 | −0.2862 |
| 2 decks · H17 · DAS | −0.0939 | −0.1814 | −0.2734 |
| 1 deck · H17 · no DAS | −0.0870 | −0.1788 | −0.2545 |
| 1 deck · S17 · no DAS | −0.0870 | −0.1788 | −0.2545 |
| European: 6 decks · S17 · DAS · no hole card | −0.0985 | −0.1826 | — |
H17: the dealer hits soft 17. S17: the dealer stands on soft 17. DAS: you can double after splitting. European tables have no hole card, so the dealer only checks for blackjack after you play: those numbers include losing everything you bet to a dealer blackjack. They also allow doubling on 9 to 11 only and one split.
Against every dealer up card
The same hand against each up card, on 6 decks · H17 · DAS · surrender.
| Dealer | Hit | Stand | Double |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | +0.0604 | +0.1131 | +0.1163 |
| 3 | +0.0882 | +0.1416 | +0.1752 |
| 4 | +0.1224 | +0.1710 | +0.2448 |
| 5 | +0.1511 | +0.1990 | +0.3023 |
| 6 | +0.1785 | +0.2226 | +0.3569 |
| 7 | +0.1719 | +0.4019 | +0.2237 |
| 8 | +0.0410 | +0.1081 | −0.0282 |
| 9 | −0.0985 | −0.1826 | −0.2848 |
| 10 | −0.1429 | −0.1796 | −0.3427 |
| A | −0.1605 | −0.2254 | −0.4178 |