How often does the dealer qualify in 3-card poker, and what happens when it doesn’t?
The dealer qualifies with queen-high or better, about seven times in ten. When it doesn’t, your ante wins even money and your play bet comes back, whatever you hold.
The dealer qualifies on 69.59% of deals. Playing Q-6-4 or better, 21.00% of all rounds end with a dealer who didn’t qualify.
How a round ends, playing Q-6-4 or better
| Outcome | Share of rounds |
|---|---|
| You fold | 32.58% |
| Dealer doesn’t qualify | 21.00% |
| You beat a qualifying dealer | 23.91% |
| Tie | 0.07% |
| Qualifying dealer beats you | 22.45% |
Exact, over all 407,170,400 deals (your hand, the dealer’s hand).
Why
The qualifier is the house’s concession for making you bet before you see the dealer’s cards. A dealer who doesn’t qualify can’t beat you, but it doesn’t pay your play bet either; the ante bonus for a straight or better still pays. That non-qualifying 30% is also why you should play weak queens: it’s money you collect without having to beat anything.